With the rapid development of integrated projects, the future PTA production capacity is still showing an increasing trend, the original PTA enterprises to expand significantly, some downstream enterprises to expand raw material equipment, to achieve the trend of industrial chain to expand upstream, to achieve from "crude oil-PX-PTA-polyester" the whole industry chain development model. In the process of development, the PTA industry pattern has also emerged new features. In recent years, the domestic PTA industry has experienced overcapacity period and reshuffle to capacity period, the change of supply pattern has a greater impact on the market, with the new device put into production, the future domestic PTA industry supply pattern surplus situation or more severe.

In the next few years, China's polyester production capacity growth rate has slowed down, of which 2024 is expected to grow at a rate of about 9.80, 2025 is expected to grow at a rate of about 4.48.
Bottle-grade PET troubles: a number of major factories are still actively investing in new production capacity
In 2024-2028, domestic bottle-grade PET is still actively investing in new production capacity, production capacity to achieve steady growth, Yisheng, Sanfang Lane is still actively investing in new production capacity, when the main large plant production capacity will continue to expand, the distribution of enterprises will be more concentrated, leading enterprises in the market share continues to expand. Anhui Haoyuan, Tongkun, three-dimensional and other new enterprises will also actively invest in the bottle-grade PET industry, the number of bottle-grade PET enterprises will continue to increase, the later industry competition pressure continues to increase. Therefore, the problem of excess capacity of bottle grade PET in 2024-2028 will be more prominent.
Differentiated fabrics into "new blue ocean" slice spinning enterprises production advantages are more obvious
It is expected that the supply of fiber-grade PET in China will continue to grow in 2024-2028. In October 2023, the fiber-grade PET market remained high under the influence of many negative factors such as the decline in raw material support and the continued weakness of downstream demand. In the follow-up, with the next five years of fiber-grade PET market after the new device put into operation, on-site supply or increased. However, with the polyester filament market new devices have been put into production, as well as the current polyester filament industry profits are compressed, the impact of rapid increase in inventory pressure, it is expected that next year, polyester filament device side-cut production or a corresponding increase in market demand or narrow increase. In the later stage, with the successful transformation of the fiber-grade PET industry chain, the integration of refining and chemical industry, the improvement of the operation level of the device and the application of new technologies, it may help the fiber-grade PET from oversupply to the balance of supply and demand. It is predicted that the supply and demand of fiber-grade PET market may be expected to reach balance in the next five years.
With the rapid development of the domestic downstream terminal textile and garment industry, the fiber industry may develop more new products in 2024-2028, and further develop product performance and its application. At present, functional and differentiated fabrics have become the "new blue ocean" for the development of the textile and apparel market. The production advantages of sliced spinning enterprises are more obvious. The subsequent colored silk and other new fabrics may promote the development of domestic downstream demand, and the domestic textile and apparel industry chain The high concentration of the industry is still irreplaceable internationally in the short term. It is expected that the export of the terminal textile and apparel market may maintain a rebound trend. On the other hand, driven by high orders and high profits, the production capacity of polyester film is expected to increase significantly next year. The demand proportion of polyester film for fiber-grade PET will increase, while the application of fiber-grade PET will be further expanded in other fields such as non-woven fabrics and plastics. It is expected that the application of fiber-grade PET will be further expanded in line with the new situation, and new utilization points of fiber-grade PET will be continuously created.
With the continuous release of new production capacity, the old production capacity is also growing. Under the situation of continuous expansion of the supply side, the competition in the staple fiber market will intensify. In addition, with the outward transfer of labor-intensive industries and the improvement of international trade barriers, my country's traditional textile industry is growing slowly, and the spinning field, as an important consumer market for cotton and polyester staple fiber, is greatly affected. Although the reduction of polyester cost leads to the price advantage of polyester staple fiber, the growth of consumption is expected to be difficult to exceed the growth of the supply side, and the competitive pressure faced by the polyester staple fiber industry may gradually increase. In 2024, the release of new short fiber production capacity is concentrated in the second half of the year, the supply pressure is greater throughout the year, the market transaction price center of gravity will decline, or maintain low processing fees. The price range is around 7000-8000 yuan/ton. In 2025-2026, staple fiber production capacity will continue to expand, but downstream yarn mill expansion is limited, and some of the higher-cost plants will exit the market or be acquired under the mismatch between supply and demand. In 2027-2028, after the production capacity clearance, the supply pressure of short fiber will be relieved to some extent, when the industry profits are expected to improve.
Two years of capacity expansion ushered in the heyday stage, polyester filament yarn leading enterprises "occupy the mountain for the king"
In the next few years, polyester filament may continue the trend of double increase in supply and demand, but the expansion of the industry is slowing down. In the next five years, polyester filament production capacity may maintain steady growth, mainly concentrated in Zhejiang, Jiangsu, Fujian, Xinjiang and other provinces, and the expansion of leading enterprises is the main. It is worth noting that the subsequent capacity expansion in Zhejiang Province may be limited. 2024-2025 is the heyday of polyester filament capacity expansion, capacity growth will enter the low range in recent years, the expansion rate of leading enterprises will slow down, and small and medium-sized enterprises will continue to exit. 2025-2028 Polyester filament factory multi-industry chain integration development. On the demand side, thanks to the recovery of domestic consumption, the domestic sales of the textile industry have achieved better growth, but the export pressure of textiles and clothing is still greater.