Industry boom report: industry production and demand slowdown, destocking pressure is greater

Date:

2023-12-29

In November, the international environment remained complex and grim, the growth momentum of major economies was slightly insufficient, and the overall recovery of the world economy was facing certain challenges. On the domestic front, the effectiveness of macro-policy continued to show, and the national economy continued to pick up for the better. From the perspective of the industry, both ends of production and demand have slowed down, market prices continue to fall, product inventories have gradually accumulated, cotton textile enterprises are under greater operating pressure, and the industry continues to be in a state of lack of prosperity. For the development of the market, enterprises cautiously wait and see. In November, China's cotton textile prosperity index was 49.0, up 0.3 percentage points from October. Although the prosperity index was in the contraction range, it improved from the previous month. From the perspective of sub-indices, the seven sub-indices that make up the China Cotton Textile Prosperity Index are all below the critical point. Among them, the raw material inventory index and corporate confidence index rose from October, and the raw material procurement index, product sales index, product inventory index, and business The operating index fell from October.

raw material purchasing index

In November, the raw material purchasing index was 47.9, down 0.1 percentage points from October, and the decline narrowed. In the same month, the raw material market supply is sufficient, downstream demand is still insufficient, raw material prices continue to fall, cotton and viscose staple fiber decline than last month expanded, polyester staple fiber decline narrowed. Specifically, the average monthly price of domestic 3128-grade cotton spot was 16317 yuan/ton, down 1240 yuan/ton from the previous month, a decrease of 7.1; the average monthly price of 1.4D direct spinning polyester short was 7426 yuan/ton, down 98 yuan/ton from the previous month, a decrease of 1.3; the average monthly price of mainstream viscose fiber was 13117 yuan/ton, down 235 yuan/ton from the previous month, a decrease of 1.8. From the procurement volume, by the decline in raw material prices, weak downstream demand and other factors, cotton textile enterprises raw material procurement cautious, cotton procurement fell 0.5, non-cotton fiber procurement fell 2.7.

raw material inventory index

In November, the raw material inventory index was 49.6, up 0.2 percentage points from October, and the decline in the industry's main raw material inventory narrowed. Recently, the market is in the off-season, the purchase and sale is relatively cold, the financial pressure of cotton textile enterprises is highlighted, some enterprises reduce production and holidays, raw material consumption decreased month-on-month. Among them, the cotton inventory index was 49.9 per cent, up 0.3 percentage points from October, while the non-cotton fiber inventory index was 49.2 per cent, the same as in October.

production index

In November, the production index stood at 49.7 percent, the same as in October, and business production continued to slow. Recent market activity is not high, with the end of the year, enterprises to tighten cash flow, one after another began to reduce production, some of the spinning mills to do conventional products to reduce production significantly. From the sub index, cotton textile enterprises equipment opening rate index was 49.4, down 0.4 percentage points from October. Yarn production index was 49.2, down 1.0 percentage points from October; cloth production index was 51.2, up 2.5 percentage points from October, weaving enterprises production has picked up.

product sales index

In November, the product sales index was 48.4, down 0.5 percentage points from October, and market demand continued to decline. In order to reduce product inventory, enterprises cut prices, gauze prices continue to expand. In the same month, the monthly average price of 32 pure cotton carded yarns was 22639 yuan/ton, down 1210 yuan/ton from the previous month, a decrease of 5.1. The monthly average price of pure cotton gray cloth (32*32 130*70 2/1 47 "twill) was 4.94 yuan/meter, down 0.1 yuan/meter from the previous month, a decrease of 2.0. In terms of sales, market transactions are weak, orders are not good, and the problem of insufficient foreign trade orders is still prominent. Yarn sales index was 49.0, down 0.1 percentage points from October; cloth sales index was 50.2, up 0.7 percentage points from October.

product inventory index

In November, the product inventory index was 48.9, down 0.9 percentage points from October, and the accumulation rate of product inventory increased. Affected by factors such as the continued decline in market prices and sluggish terminal demand, the industrial chain purchases cautiously, the spinning mill shipments slowed down, and product inventories continued to increase. Judging from the sub-indicators that make up the product inventory index, the yarn inventory index was 48.2, down 0.8 percentage points from October; the cloth inventory index was 50.1, down 0.9 percentage points from October. From the tracking data, the inventory level of weaving enterprises is better than that of spinning enterprises.

enterprise operation index

In November, the business index was 49.5, down 0.1 percentage points from October, and business pressure continued to increase. The current market situation is not good, in order to reduce inventory to speed up the collection, product price reduction is obvious, profits are further compressed, and even losses, enterprises generally respond to "serious internal volume". In terms of the sub-indicators that make up the business index, the main business income index was 49.4 per cent, the same as in October, while the total profit index was 49.5 per cent, down 0.3 percentage points from October.

business confidence index

In November, the enterprise confidence index was 47.1, up 3.6 percentage points from October, and the confidence of enterprises in the future development has changed. At present, the complexity, severity and uncertainty of China's textile and clothing foreign trade environment continue to rise, and there are blocking points in the domestic cycle of the industrial chain, but China's economy has strong resilience, sufficient potential, and the fundamentals of long-term improvement have not changed, which "adds confidence" to the high-quality development of the industry ". The convening of the Central Economic Work Conference systematically deployed the economic work for next year, injecting confidence into the development of the industry, and the future development is worth looking forward.

RELATED INFORMATION

From January 1 next year, China will adjust import and export tariffs on some commodities.

In order to support and help the least developed countries to accelerate their development, the preferential tax rate will continue to be implemented in 2024 for the least developed countries that have established diplomatic relations with China and completed the exchange of documents. In order to promote China's superior products to better participate in the international market competition, 2024 will be appropriate to adjust the national sub-items, adding decorative base paper, high-end steel products and other tax items. After adjustment, the total number of tariff items is 8957.

2023-12-29

Towards the end of the year, foreign trade orders are now rebounding, or will basically return to 2019 levels!

Recently, according to the analysis of the small commodity index network, the price index fell slightly in the second week of December, and offline transactions were hot, driving up the on-site trading price index and export trading price index. The popularity of military coats has brought about a sales boom that has led to the production of related clothing accessories and accessories. In addition, skin care and beauty products, sanitary and cleaning daily necessities and other products are also sold in the market. Foreign trade performance increased year-on-year

2023-12-29

Quote express: gauze briefly warmed up, cotton "volume price" rebounded

According to feedback from several cotton processing enterprises in Aksu, Korla, Kuitun and other places, driven by the rebound in Zheng cotton last week and the "tail-lifting" market in terminal production and sales before the festival, not only cotton prices inside and outside Xinjiang rebounded with futures oscillation, but also the enthusiasm of cotton traders/current companies and textile enterprises to make inquiries and purchases gradually rebounded from the first half of December. How long this situation can last, cotton-related enterprises are generally not sure, can only observe while shipping.

2023-12-29

Yuefa Textile